MLB Platinum Club Hi-Roller - Wednesday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers
- Release Date
- 07/02/2025 11:32 AM
- Event Date
- 07/02/2025 08:05 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Texas Rangers -135
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The Rangers and Orioles kick off a three-game series in Arlington this evening, and the outlook is clearly in the Rangers’ favor. Jacob deGrom’s recent form from last night - six quality innings (two runs on five hits, six strikeouts) in his second straight victory - gives Texas control of the series as he can now extend a streak of at least five innings and no more than two runs allowed to 14 starts. The offense came to life as well last night, with Adolis García collecting four RBIs on a pair of hits and a homer and Alejandro Osuna smacking his first career dinger.
Tonight’s pitching matchup further improves the Rangers’ outlook for the series: Texas is starting Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 1.87 ERA and above-average control (4.3% walk rate, .235 wOBA) according to his recent performance. Baltimore is on the opposite side of that spectrum with a nod to Tomoyuki Sugano. Advanced metrics haven’t been kind to Sugano (5.23 xERA, .290 xBA, among the bottom 3% in strikeout rate) and his last couple of outings have even been abbreviated with no trips to the six-inning mark.
Offense also favors Texas as the Orioles have been lackluster on the road (15-27) and against AL West teams this year (4-12). The Rangers play well at home (25-18) and have a recent edge over Baltimore in the last eight contests (six wins).
Gunnar Henderson will shoulder Baltimore’s offense, which will depend on his bat after he’s put together a .270/.379/.493 slash with 79 homers and 221 RBIs since his 2022 debut. Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been consistent, though, so matching Eovaldi’s presumed run prevention isn’t likely.
Baltimore faces a tough climb with a one-sided loss already on the ledger and a weak hitter’s matchup. Meanwhile, home-field advantage, good vibes and an overpowering starter give Texas the edge for another series win. I expect Eovaldi to pitch deep and the Rangers to win tonight.
Jim's Play: 964. Rangers